"Ghost GDP" Risk in Türkiye: To Whom Does the Productivity Increase Go?
A country's GDP may grow, its productivity may increase, it may even climb world rankings and achieve stellar presentations—but households may not feel any of it. They call this paradox "Ghost GDP". I first saw the concept systematically in
A country’s GDP may grow, its productivity may increase, it may even climb world rankings and achieve stellar presentations—but households may not feel any of it. They call this paradox “Ghost GDP”. I first saw the concept systematically in Citrini Research’s thought experiment titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” “Ghost GDP”: output that appears in national accounts but does not circulate in the real economy. And to think that Türkiye is protected from this risk is, to put it mildly, naive. Ghos
The Signal
A country’s GDP may grow, its productivity may increase, it may even climb world rankings and achieve stellar presentations—but households may not feel any of it.
Why It Matters
They call this paradox “Ghost GDP”. I first saw the concept systematically in Citrini Research’s thought experiment titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” “Ghost GDP”: output that appears in national accounts but does not circulate in the real economy. And to think that Türkiye is protected from this risk is, to put it mildly, naive.
When a company starts doing the work of a team of 50 people with 15 people thanks to AI tools, the output stays the same (or even increases), the organization makes a profit, the contribution to GDP does not change—but the 35 people are no longer receiving that income. Those 35 people do not spend. He can’t pay the rent. He doesn’t pay taxes.
In the USA, this scenario is modeled on white-collar professionals: product managers, software developers, analysts, consultants. In Citrini’s model, the top 20% of income earners in the US account for 65% of consumption expenditures. The loss of income of this segment undermines the basis of the consumption economy.
The Move
Türkiye’s workforce structure is radically different from the United States. The white-collar rate is lower, unregistered employment is higher, and the service sector is more fragmented. At first glance, you might say, “AI doesn’t impress us much.”
The section devoted to India’s IT services sector in the Citrini article is striking: TCS, Infosys and Wipro’s annual exports of over $200 billion were the backbone of India’s current account balance. When the marginal cost of AI coding agents dropped to the price of electricity, this model collapsed.
Türkiye’s software exports are not as large as India’s, but the growth trend was in the same direction. Turkish software companies—especially those serving the European market—operate in exactly the segment where AI is developing the fastest: mid-market enterprise software development, testing, support and integration.
Read the Full Analysis
For the full original analysis, read the Ghost version here: https://www.mesutaydin.link/turkiyede-ghost-gdp-riski-verimlilik-arts-kime-gidiyor/
This article is for strategic information only. It is not legal, investment, or tax advice.